Need anyone say more…in about a decade or two we’ll discover the PRC’s ultimate intent. I already have a more-than-fair idea about that issue, but I’ll hold my fire for the moment.

I have long thought that China regards the US rather as Imperial Germany regarded Britain in the years before WWI. Wherever they want to expand there is the US sitting across the path to their Place In The Sun. Now China has advanced from Communism to fascism, but that will just make the place even more dangerous. This is something we shall have to take into account in addition to the Islamist terrorists.

CPT Charles;

Assuming that the PRC lasts that long. I expect China to disintegrate within the next 10 to 20 years. It’s the historical pattern.

I sincerely hope you’re right. I hold similar views but as the PRC becomes more facist (and continues to sucessfully play the ‘nationalism’ card), their ‘expiration date’ keeps moving back.

IMO-their cultural model allows the transposition of the ‘emperor rules all under heaven’ to their ‘central committee’ rulership style a little too easily. Yes, I know they have a growing middle class (and professional elite), but ‘the state’ still retains overwhelming power.

Do the wrong thing and you DO disappear; trials are a mere formality, casual torture, rape and death via ‘interrogation’ occur with impunity. The PLA maintains select units exclusively recruited from ‘rural’ areas—-this population group envies (and hates) urban dwellers. Such units were sent into Tianamen Square; combat drugs given beforehand aside, they had NO trouble squeezing the trigger on the students. The units sent in earlier had a much higher ratio of ‘urbans’ in their ranks…and ultimately proved to be the least reliable.

That lesson was NOT lost on the PLA leadership, and yes, the CC leadership does make a point of keeping the rural regions as primitive as they can get away with (and they are increasing measures to clamp down on the ‘unauthorized’ movement of rural folk to the cities).

It is a complicated dynamic to be sure…how long will the populace buy the nationalism angle? When will the whip of state terror lose it’s sting? How long will the average factory worker endure conditions the West hasn’t seen since the early-mid 19th century? How long will the rural citizen endure over-taxation? When will the govenment retract it’s reforms of ‘localized government’? When will their ‘I want a boy child’ mindset hit critical mass (the male:female ratio is getting serious…)? And all the other factors…

The PRC has a target for their ‘tech level’(and combat strength) relating to the PLA, NPLA, and PLAAF. If they reach that higher baseline before societal collapse sets in…WATCH OUT. Pray the reverse occurs, ‘cause it will get ugly otherwise.

And yes, I do have children who will be of military age during this whole time frame. That’s ONE of the reasons I pay attention to these things.

CPT. Charles - Very interesting post. I am impressed with your knowledge and evaluation of the reality in China. No criticism from me, because I admittedly know much less about the internal workings of the Chinese system than you do. But one thing about your post intrigued me: you mention “combat drugs.” Do you mean that the Chinese soldiers who were sent to Tianenman Square were drugged to fight? I never knew that there were such drugs out there. Can you elaborate? This is disturbing. Are there really drugs out there that induce people to want to fight and kill? If so, do such drugs not impair a soldier’s mental abilities in other ways, too? How widespread is the use of such drugs (or the strategic planning of using such drugs in combat situations) among the world’s various militaries? I’m just curious. I promise I’m not looking to pick a fight or that I have any hidden agendas. I just want to know a bit more. Thanks for any enlightenment you can provide.

CPT;

By Chinese historical standards, the PRC repression is actually fairly mild. Heck, it’s mild compared to Mao.

But really, I don’t expect chaos but a break up China into multiple competing powers. These techniques have been tried before but military units (or at least their leaders) are frequently coopted by the local warlords - I mean party chiefs. Nationalism in China can be easily turned to a more local form.

Jimmy-actually the issue of combat drugs goes back a long, long way. The first items would be naturally occuring items: alcohol (believe it or not…), marajuana, later hash, khat, etc. Just about anything that would diminish the ‘flight’ instinct; getting people to stand their ground is hard enough, let along getting them to move forward in a reasonably cohesive fashion. As to ‘modern’ combat drugs, the initial one was ‘speed’ (pardon the street lingo), introduced during WWII. That drug only saw limited used because of the nasty ‘side effects’. Speed is still used today, but ONLY as an ‘endurance enhancer’, and only under strict medical guidelines. It is NOT a common use item because it’s obvious side effects, but if an operation goes into ‘crisis mode’ it can be employed. Remember, withdrawl is easier to deal with than death (a somewhat permanent condition). As to the Chinese troops, I have to go on various news reports from sources I KNOW to be reliable…one witness reported pills being passed out (as well as injections) before the assault of the square, another report described the ‘appearance’ of those same troops…the exactly wording escapes me, but my impression is that some sort of psychoactive chemical was employed; something that diminished emotional response, I’ll call it a ‘zombie’ drug for lack of an exact analysis. [I case you’re wondering, I do have a medical background as one of my skill sets…].

From my own point of view, I’m against employing such things. My own personal experience has taught me that a trained, disciplined (and unclouded) mind is a FAR more valuable asset.

For anyone out there who has had formal martial arts training, you know that your mental state can make ALL the difference, overriding your minor physical limitations. When someone tells you that it’s all in the mind…they’re not blowing smoke. Pure willpower can be amazing (I know this to be so…).

Old Guy-compared to past actions, you’re correct. But given the fact that most (if not all) of those practices were pure ‘overkill’ (no pun intended), refined terror is no less effective and avoids all the (political/world opinion) blowback that comes with using ‘extreme measures’ (ie-putting entire city populations to the sword). Mao operated within a news blackout (a relatively closed society) allowing himself a free hand to deal with ‘enemies of the state’ (I knew a female acquaintance who survived the Cultural Revolution, I’ve got a pretty damn good idea what went on during those years…).

China reverting to regionalism? Maybe, if the right series of events came to pass.