SADDAM'S CAPTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WAR

As a single event, the capture of Saddam Hussein promises to change the dynamics of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in ways we can scarcely predict. Of course, that didn't stop anyone from predicting all kinds of things. But anyway.

The war on terrorism, or more properly Islamicism, is as much an ideological struggle as it is a political or military one. It's possible that we may destroy al Qaeda and sufficiently scare any state thinking about supporting a similar group to the point that their threat is removed, only to lose Europe to radical Islam some decades hence and face a renewed threat. That is so because of the massive influx of unassimilated Muslims into Europe over the past 30 or 40 years, a population without love for their new home but with philosophical ties to the old madrassas of their youth. This problem will not go away overnight, whether we capture every single member of al Qaeda or not.

But there is a way to turn it around, and right it over the long haul. Many, perhaps most, of those Islamic emigrees moved to Europe and the US to better their lives, to escape tyranny and to have a chance at a better economic life. What if the Middle East became more habitable? What if life there improved to such an extent that immigration to Europe slowed or stopped, or even reversed?

Capturing Saddam has already yielded fruit for the coalition. Our troops have already busted a number of terror cells in Iraq based on intelligence gleaned from Saddam's capture. The image of the Tiger of the Tigris submitting to a lice check at American hands has surely knocked the wind out of the Islamicists and their view of inevitability--that they will prevail because it's Allah's will. It's tough to make that argument now, with Saddam in leg irons and his kingdom in American hands, and his former subjects taking to streets to cheer his end. When Iraqi justice delivers Saddam's final justice, the Middle East could take on a new direction.

In the final analysis, that's what the Iraq war has been about--changing the Middle East, both to weaken the terror groups and their state sponsors and to make the region itself more habitable for its own people (eliminating WMDs that could fall into the hands of terrorists is part of the former). The Middle East has long been under the sway of bloodthirsty tyrants. The worst one sits in a cell today, probably still trying to negotiate with his captors. He is finished.

Over time, if Iraq becomes a free and democratic state, even an imperfect one, it can become the example for the rest of the region to follow. Iraq's example can pave the way for systematic change throughout the region. If the Middle East become more habitable and prosperous for the average person, fewer will leave for Europe and the US. Fewer still will heed the call to jihad. The radical madrassas may find their support drying up, parents no longer interested in sending their little boys to study under increasingly fringe clerics. And perhaps the demographic challenges that unassimilated Muslim populations pose in Europe and throughout the West will start to evaporate as immigration trends reverse course.

We have a better chance to win now, because one old man crawled up out of his his hidey-hole and submitted to a US Army doctor's oral exam.