Al Qaeda's Next Move
Al Qaeda will probably soon be driven out of Iraq, if not entirely then at least functionally. As Strategy Page reports (via InstaPundit), the standing-up Iraqi army and Coalition forces have taken away most of al Qaeda's refuges in Iraq. If the Sunnis get with the democratic program and help turn Qaeda terrorists out their territories, the bad guys will have little to do but run to the border areas and probably into other states. Which states, though?
Syria is an obvious candidate, but its present nervousness and the possibility of real international approbrium stemming from the Hariri assination would seem to make Syria a wobbly host. Assad might just curry international favor by snatching up whatever major Qaeda figures show up in lands he controls and turn them over to the US or UN.
Iran is the next likely host. In fact, it probably already hosts senior Qaeda leadership. But there's only so much functional value to staying inside Iran if you're a bloodthirsty operative like Zarqawi. Whom would the terrorists attack--student protestors? From Iran, Zarqawi and his accolytes could mount attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but that's of limited value as well as both are lost to al Qaeda for the foreseeable future, and both are quite hostile to the terrorists from the top of their governments.
I think the Zarqawi brigades are most likely to show up where they believe they'll be able to do some lasting good, from their point of view. If they're driven out of Iraq, they'll end up in Gaza working with Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. From there they will be able to attack Isreal and Jordan easily enough, they could keep Egypt under close watch and they won't be far from Iraq should they see the need to mount attacks there. And the US won't dare mount any direct attacks within any Palestinian territory. The international outcry against any American attack would be tremendous, no matter the intentions or the results. Thus, Yasser Arafat's creation will probably become Zarqawi's next base of operations.
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Leak Probe
Maybe the Plamegate investigation has done some good after all. Congressional leaders are finally taking CIA leaks seriously.
Sources tell Drudge that early this afternoon House Speaker Hastert and Senate Majority Leader Frist will announce a bicameral investigation into the leak of classified information to the WASHINGTON POST regarding the “black sites” where high value al Qaeda terrorists are being held and interrogated.MORE
Said one Hill source: “Talk about a leak that damaged national security! How will we ever get our allies to cooperate if they fear that their people will be targeted by al Qaeda.”
According to sources, the WASHINGTON POST story by Dana Priest (Wednesday November 2), revealed highly classified information that has already done significant damage to US efforts in the War on Terror.
Developing...
Good. Maybe some day they'll look into the pre-war leak of the war plan to the New York Times, too. Such leaks should never be tolerated, at all, ever.