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Last SCO/Cold War Post of the Weekend - I Promise

I've been making the argument that China and Russia formed SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) as an entity to counter US influence in the Middle East and promote their own ascension to superpower status. They then began to prop up Iran, who as we know has been supporting various violent factions in Iraq. Thus we have a situation where US soldiers are battling proxies of Iran, who is in turn a proxy of China and Russia.



This may see far-fetched to some people, though every element of that argument is supported by multiple sources. For example, today we have Bloomberg talking about SCO:
Russia and China today host Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a summit of a Central Asian security club designed to counter U.S. influence in the region.
...
China and Russia, which are competing with the West for access to Central Asia's oil and gas reserves, are positioning the SCO as a counterweight to the U.S., said Andrew Kuchins of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.``

Russia and China never tire of reiterating their commitment to a multipolar world and opposition to a unipolar one,'' he said in a telephone interview. ``The SCO is a manifestation of that in Eurasia.''

russiachinairansyria%20relationships.gif
By "multipolar" they mean a world with more than one superpower - specifically a world where the United States is just one among many nations.

The question now is "What do we want to do about it?" That is, I think you could make the argument that a multipolar world would be more fair, as the US's disproportionate global influence was balanced by peers. Perhaps we should begin promoting multipolarity ourselves, to the presumed benefit of the world's people.

There are, however, two problems with multipolarity. The first is that Russia and China make a pair of very untrustworthy poles. In fact, I suspect that an eventual return to a unipolar world is the ultimate goal of those countries. The second problem lies in our standard of living, which will be seriously compromised as competition for resources becomes more fierce. China's effect on oil prices is already being felt, and their consumption continues to skyrocket.

As for me, I was comfortable in a world with a single, reasonably benign, superpower. I'm not particularly anxious to see that situation change. And if it is going to change, I'd like to know that there's a well-thought-out plan for preserving our security and standard of living. Because in as little as five years, that standard is going to start dropping.

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Posted by Geoff on August 19, 2007 7:28 AM
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Comments

I thought SCO was paid off by Microsoft to sue Linux users and distributors like IBM?

PRC/Russian ‘alliances’ run in 20 year cycles—on, off, on, off.

Too many egos, not enough time.

PRC/Russian ‘alliances’ run in 20 year cycles—on, off, on, off.

There are some skeptics, to be sure, and it’s possible that SCO and the PRC/Russian alliance will fall apart. But I doubt it - their current relationship is quite different than the uneasy, grudging alliances of the past.

Consider their economic ties. In 2000, trade between them was only $8 billion. Last year it was $33.4 billion. It’s projected to hit between $60 and $80 billion by 2010 - the higher end would be a 10-fold increase in only 11 years. China is also Russia’s largest arms purchaser, and already constitutes 10% of Russia’s international trade.

The economic future is rosy, with all indications being ripe for acceleration and expansion of their economic ties:
…trade is a top priority. Chinese President Hu Jintao has made this clear. “We should speed up and multiply cooperation in energy resources. We should take positive steps in the joint exploitation of petroleum, gas and forestry resources,” he said. “We should try to move the cooperation style from a pure resources trade to one with more joint production.” … China has been importing mostly raw material from Russia, such as oil and lumber, and exporting consumer goods. Annual trade has grown over the past ten years from about $7 billion to nearly $40 billion. Volume is expected to increase with the completion of new oil pipelines from Russia to China. One of Russia’s leading China experts, Vladimir Myasnikov, says both countries are developing other trade opportunities. “Energy-related machine building. We’re building a nuclear power plant. We provide turbines. We’re cooperating in the field of space exploration. High tech should lead the way to a substantial increase in bilateral trade.”
This isn’t your father’s PRC/Russia relationship. This is unprecedented, as evidenced by their joint military exercises in 2005 and 2007. Russia can’t afford to lose China as a trading partner, and China can’t continue its economic expansion without Russia’s imports of oil and lumber.

I doubt this will fall apart after 20 years, but even if it does, the second decade of that 20 years will be very uncomfortable for the US.

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