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•By geoff
 at Aug 20, 4:26 AM about
 More Good News from Russia
•By Occasus
 at Aug 19, 9:55 PM about
 More Good News from Russia
•By wolfwalker
 at Aug 19, 8:07 PM about
 More Good News from Russia
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More Good News from Russia

The Telegraph has written a follow-up article to Friday's article about Russia's plan to resume long-range strategic bomber missions. In today's article they describe Russia's efforts to restore her former military might:

On Friday President Vladimir Putin caused consternation by announcing the resumption of regular, long-range nuclear bomber patrols, but there is more to come; Russia is planning to double combat aircraft production by 2025 with more nuclear missiles, aircraft carriers and tanks at the top of Moscow's shopping list.
...
Russian defence spending rose by 22 per cent and 27 per cent in the past two years and could be up as much as 30 per cent this year. In February, Sergei Ivanov, then defence secretary and now one of the front-runners to replace Mr Putin next year, announced a £100 billion programme of expenditure. According to Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments, the Russian shopping list includes two new submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missiles, the Bulava and the Sineva, both with a 5,000 mile range and capable of carrying 10 nuclear warheads, and a new anti-aircraft missile, the S-400, which the Russian ministry of defence claims is effective against incoming missiles.

It also plans to spend heavily on the new TU-160 strategic bomber, which can launch cruise missiles, the SU-34 "Fullback" fighter-bomber capable of all-weather attacks on heavily defended targets and a new fifth-generation fighter, the Sukhoi T-50, which is expected to come into service in 2008 as Russia's main lightweight front-line fighter. The expanded Russian fleet will include six new nuclear powered aircraft carriers, it has just one at present, and eight ballistic missile submarines.

Very nice. Just another example of why you should never go shopping when you're hungry.

Of course the press never misses a chance for a drive-by strafing of the Bush administration:

Intelligence sources say Washington and London have been taken aback by just how seriously Russia has viewed the perceived slight and admit that in concentrating so heavily on Iraq and al-Qaeda, they took their eyes off the ball.

"They were slow to see that these people are still players," said a former White House staffer, who served both Ronald Reagan and George Bush. "My great fear is that I wake up one day soon to discover that we lost the Cold War, or rather that like everything else, we won the war and then lost the peace."

Not that the press has had its eye on the ball, either. For one thing, the rapid increase in Russian military expenditures started in 2000 (see this chart, for example). Didn't hear much from the press on that over the past 7 years, did we? For another, the press still hasn't fathomed the importance of the Sino-Russian alliance. In the article they attribute Russia's military buildup to a wounded national ego, but I doubt that such a trite motive is a primary cause. Rather, Russia is seeking to bolster its position in its relationship with China - they see a new, multipolar world coming (as opposed to the last decade's US-dominated, unipolar world), and they want to be an equal partner with China until they become a pole of their own.

And finally, the title of the article is " Vladimir Putin rearms his Cold War military." This isn't a senseless rearming of yesterday's military in remembrance of a bygone war, as the title and article suggest: this is the carefully calculated arming of the military to fight in the new Cold War. The press needs to stop acting like these recent activities are mementos from the old Cold War, and start recognizing the methodical, deliberate positioning that has characterized the Sino-Russian alliance's activities since 2001.

As does our State Department.

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Posted by Geoff on August 19, 2007 3:27 AM
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Let’s see… Two new SLBMs, eight boomers, six nuclear CVs, major production for three state-of-the-art warplanes, and probably more (carriers need escorts, for example) … I will believe this when I see it, and not a second before. The United States has twice the population, probably ten times the tech base, and fourteen times the GDP of Russia, and we couldn’t sustain a building program like that. How can they possibly design, develop, build, man, operate, and maintain all that stuff?

I wonder if Russia is scared of China. With its population dropping, Russia is now one of the less-populous nations on the globe in terms of people per unit of area, while neighboring China is one of the most populous nations. Is Putin afraid of a Chinese power play in Siberia?

Posted by wolfwalker on August 19, 2007 8:07 PM

Mark Steyn said somewhere that Russia would be smart to sell Siberia to China, because at the rate they’re going, China will just walk in and take over not too far down the road.

Of course, with China’s plunging birth rate and male-to-female birth ratio as far out of whack as it is, in a generation or two they’ll be in the same boat. Might be a rough 50 years though.

Posted by Occasus on August 19, 2007 9:55 PM

How can they possibly design, develop, build, man, operate, and maintain all that stuff?

It’s only $200 billion, presumably spread over something like 5-10 years.

Mark Steyn said somewhere that Russia would be smart to sell Siberia to China, because at the rate they’re going,

Russia has become a major natural resource supplier to China - in that sense they’re renting Siberia to China.

Posted by geoff on August 20, 2007 4:26 AM
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